So I really love my steaks.
Like, love-love.
All types and all cuts. Can’t give me a bad steak.
I have my preferences of course, and my preferred way to cook them.
Usually it’s medium rare, ribeye, on the BBQ. Just salt and pepper, no sauces, no other rubs.
But lately I’ve been experimenting with different ways to cook them and I’ve become obsessed with the “cold pan sear”.
That’s my latest attempt with some Prime Grade New York striploins above.
I just can’t believe you can pan sear a steak, starting with a cold pan and no fat in the pan at all. It’s incredible to me.
You bring the steak to room temperature, pepper it, then put it into the cold pan, dry.
Jack the heat to max for 2 min, then flip the steak at max heat for another 2 min, then turn the heat to slightly below medium and keep turning the steak every two minutes.
And you get the above.
No mess, no fuss, no hassle.
On the side I melted some butter in a small saucepan with some garlic and thyme and poured that all over the steak once I took it out of the pan.
Remove the steak at about 122-124 degrees, max, and let it sit for 5 minutes, pour over the butter and enjoy.
I’m blown away at how good they come out.
The sear is incredible.
Who knew?
Anyway, on to much more serious matters…
We could be staring at the bottom of the real estate market.
Not for condos, but for most of the other real estate types.
Check out the latest data from our friend Ben Rabidoux.
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Now look at this next chart Ben produced that summarizes housing starts in Canada.
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Lastly, take a peak at the latest M2 Money Supply chart in Canada from Trading Economics….
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Some things come to mind looking at those charts:
1. Most people are so caught up “in the moment” and in “negative headlines” they have a difficult time seeing the future.
With single family home starts this low we are setting up for a real shortage of them two years from now. Personally, I’m thinking we can see a price squeeze on them because our population is not decreasing in any meaningful way for an extended period of time.
Our structural housing imbalance and lack of single family homes is set to get worse.
2. Ben’s first chart shows where the real estate market is at. With up to three more interest rate cuts this year the affordability of homes is going to continue to ease up.
It’s going to drive activity.
If there’s an “economic crisis” of any sort, the central planners will drop the interest rates harder and faster, as they always do, in the name of “our best interests”.
3. M2 Money Supply is NOT slowing down.
When you have a lack of single family homes being produced but more and more and more dollars keep getting created, it creates an environment where you need more dollars to buy the same product.
It’s just math.
More dollars are being created than hard assets therefore the dollar price of hard assets goes up.
We’ll likely look back on this era as so many were calling for the death of the real estate market with shock as property prices drive a next leg higher.
Look, some of you out there are reading this thinking we’re some perma bull real estate guys.
That’s actually the wrong lens to look at the game.
We just expect the government to always print more dollars and as a result the dollar price of good, scarce, single family homes drives higher (with brief pauses and downward moves too).
If you’re just waving your fist at the sky screaming “real estate is still overpriced” you’re not seeing the whole game.
The monopoly game we’re playing is pretty simple.
The government and the banks never lose. Prepare accordingly.
And the game has a new entrant.
Bitcoin is no longer a little side project for cypherpunks.
It’s now caught the attention of the mainstream media as corporations begin adding the best form of money humankind has ever seen to their balance sheets.
Bitcoin is a money that the government cannot debase.
In Bitcoin terms, real estate is, in fact, getting cheaper.
Your monopoly board just changed and you may want to pay attention.
There is a wealth transfer happening before your eyes.
If you’re still confused about Bitcoin check out Larry Lepard’s new book, The Big Print.
Or check out the Canadian Bitcoin Conference in Montreal this Fall.
Early Bird tickets are available until May 30.
You can check out the details on their site, we’ll be there:
You can live life on your terms if you understand the game.
And the game is always changing so you gotta pay attention.
Avoid the media headlines, find good people who are doing what you want to be doing and hang out with them.
The people that you look up to are likely the ones who had the courage to act in the face of negativity. Find those people and hang out with them…they’ll rub off on you.
Until next time…
Tom & Nick
p.s. Yes I’m distracting myself from the Leafs' brutal exit from the playoffs with good steak!!
