Does the Real Estate Market Go Up or Down in 2023?

Message from Tom & Nick

On Monday, we took possession of a vacation home we bought up at Blue Mountain.

We purchased the property in the summer of 2020 and the closing has been delayed more than a year!

But we finally got the keys.

That's Kevin Tulk in the picture, a very long time Rock Star VIP Member.

He was the very first person to find us up here (to no one's surprise!) and he was kind enough to drop off a gift.

If you look closely you'll see that he signed it off as being from, "The Mayor".

Kevin is the unofficial Mayor of the Blue Mountain and Collingwood area...he literally knows everyone up there! He's already connected us with at least three amazing contractors in the area.

There are many Rock Star Inner Circle members, old friends and even old high school buddies in the area so it's feeling like a very warm and welcoming place already!

Our lawyer is even up in the lawyers add or take away from the warmth? I'm never sure. Joking!!!

Next summer we're going to do a monster pig roast up there for sure!! LOL.

This property represents a bit of a dream come true for us.

We have been buying rental property for years and to be able to buy a vacation property 15-min walk from the Blue Mountain village has us feeling grateful.

Our Mom used to take us up to Blue back in the days of the original "slide ride". The one where you could fly off at like 40km/hour.

Both our parents worked incredibly hard to be able to have some money to afford those trips.

So now, to be in a position where we can buy a vacation home up there for our families is feeling pretty special.

We remind our kids all the time about all their grandparents and how they worked so hard for our families.

Those grandparents gave us, and now our children, a solid foundation to build our lives from...a foundation they never had. So we don't want to squander the opportunity that we've been so fortunate to have.

We have one more vacation property to buy before I complete my personal goal of the "mysterious triangle".

Where we can be living in either Croatia, Canada, or one more place (likely south) and no one really knows where we are at any given time.

Sounds crazy, I know. But it's fun.

Anyway, enough of all that...on to serious matters.

So according to Rob McLister (@RobMcLister on Twitter) about 1 in 20 people who got a CMHC high-ratio mortgage this year are underwater.

Meaning they have no equity in the house...they actually have "negative equity".

We're not in serious real estate trouble at the moment but if prices fall more and/or unemployment gets serious out.

Historically, the average Canada mortgage arrears rate is roughly 0.9% (according to the Canadian Bankers Association's data).

The latest numbers have Ontario at 0.06% and Canada at 0.14%.

The data is accurate as of there's a lag in the reporting.

And here's where things are going to get interesting...

Mortgage arrears can literally triple or more in Ontario and we're going to be well under historical averages.

But that hypothetical tripling of mortgage arrears is going to make for great headlines.

Be prepared to see mainstream media screaming that the sky is falling. And their data may be accurate...that arrears are way up year-over-year.

But compared to our historical averages they can still be super low.

And for context, during the Great Financial Crisis in the U.S. mortgage arrears hit the 9% range (not 0.9%....9%!).

In the short term anything is possible with real estate prices.

But in the medium to longer term, in this area, the fundamentals still look strong. Many more people, not enough housing supply, and prices of labour and material staying high.

This is exactly what we discussed with Ben Rabidoux on the podcast we just released this week.

He breaks down all the data he's looking at and gives his thoughts on where the Canadian and Ontario market is headed.

And exactly what he thinks will happen to prices in 2023...whether they go up or they go down.

You can check out that episode by clicking right here.

It's also linked further down in this email for you.

Ben does an excellent job of separating the noise from the signal.

Definitely worth a listen.

That's it for this week, everyone.

Nick is still up at Blue as we speak ensuring the appliances get installed. We're going to be back up there on the weekend as well, I think.

What a life. It's short so try and make it as sweet as possible.

Do your homework, speak to people who are living the life you want to live and figure out how they did it.

We can all live life on our own terms.

Trust us, if two brothers from the Rockwood Mall area in Mississauga can, then you ABSOLUTELY can too!

Tom & Nick

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